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Film Dunce Files v. Frame of Motion: Superhero Box Office Showdown!


Being that this is the year of versus, Film Dunce Files is challenging our friends at Frame of Motion to a little competition. The goal? Find out which of us is better at determining the success of movies, specifically Superhero movies.

Here's how it works:

Today, I post my predictions for the SEVEN superhero movies coming out this year. On Wednesday, Taylor at Frame of Motion will post his predictions. Whoever is closest wins! But more importantly, who ever is the most wrong loses. The loser has to wear a jersey of the winner's home state. So if Phil loses, he wears a Packers jersey for his website's photo, and if Taylor loses he wears a Vikings jersey for his website. The stakes have never been so high.

BE SURE TO LIKE THE FRAME OF MOTION FACBOOK PAGE.

1. Captain America: Civil War $450 Million

This is the "sequel" to Winter Soldier, and I'm sure in terms of story and themes, it will be. So considering Winter Soldier topped out around $250 Million, why the heck am I nearly doubling it? Two words: Iron Man. But Iron Man 3 only grossed $410 Million, where's the other 40 coming from? One hyphenate: Spider-man. Oh, and Captain America. With more Avengers than the last Avengers movie, I almost forgot Captain America was in this.

I've also noticed a trend in Superhero movies, after a disappointment, there's a bounce back. It's like a trampoline. Deadpool did well, Batman under-performed, so logically Civil War is going to jump very high, at least critically. Call it Marvel bias, I call it research. Civil War's "Spider-man" trailer has almost 3 times the views of the last Batman v. Superman trailer on YouTube, and both came out at the same time. Views don't necessarily translate into ticket sales, but couple that with all the other factors, including the "Start of the Summer" scheduling, and it would be a huge surprise if Civil War didn't crush the box office.

2. Deadpool $365 Million

This one doesn't really take any analysis, considering it's pretty much already done. It's currently at $355 million, after picking up 3.5 this last weekend, so I'm just assuming it picks up another 10 on it's way out of theaters. The movie itself is such a box office anomaly, it hasn't dropped very quickly at all, still doing decent work a staggering eight weeks after it's initial release.

Seriously, if we did this at the beginning of the year and Taylor said "I'm going to put Deadpool at number 2, about X-men and Batman" I would have asked him which Vikings player he wanted on the jersey (I'm thinking Blair Walsh). But Deadpool is by far the most successful film in X-men franchise, and there's no reason to think that it won't stay that way... until Deadpool 2 maybe.

3. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice $325 Million

Remember opening weekend when fans of the movie were saying "who cares what critics think? Look at that box office!". Well, after this weekend's devastating drop of 68%, it looks like audiences care what critics think. I think the first weekend was the result of a curious audience, the people who love seeing a movie opening weekend, living in the hype. More skeptical viewers stayed home, then asked the curious audience what they thought. Despite people saying "the audience score is 70%!", 70% isn't a good audience score. Audiences are very nice, and 70% is a C-. If you got a C- from your nicest teacher, you wrote a bad paper.

Still, that opening $150 million opening will help make sure the film isn't an outright bomb. But 68% is a huge drop, especially considering essentially no competition was released this weekend. Next weekend doesn't look much better, but Jungle Book is two weeks from now and Civil War comes out in a month. So I don't think I'm being ridiculous when I use a very steep drop calculation to predict the final haul.

4. Suicide Squad $240 Million

This could be a bit optimistic. It's kind of hard to find a comparison for this, so I used Guardians of the Galaxy as a point of reference. That being said, Guardians of the Galaxy was by no means a formulaic success, I would even argue it was the Deadpool of 2014; and 2016 already has a Deadpool... it's Deadpool. However, the trailers are being warmly received, Will Smith is a bigger star that anyone in Guardians was (at the time of it's release), Margot Robbie is up and coming, and then there's the trump card: The Joker.

I almost would argue The Joker is more popular than Batman after Heath Ledger defined the Nolan trilogy by showing up for exactly a third of it. Word from set is Jared Leto is strong in the role, but that's kind of like asking the waiter at the restaurant if the steak is good; he's not going to say, "No, this restaurant is awful, go eat at Marvel's." Remember, Jesse Eisenberg was getting lots of good praise from Zack Snyder before Batman v. Superman. Really, the movie is in Leto's hands. If he's good, $240 could be a drastic underestimation. If he's bad, expect somewhere around $150.

5. X-Men: Apocolypse $230 Million

I'm being a little cynical with this one. While some might argue that Deadpool's success bodes well for the X-men, I would argue the two seem like different entities to the general public. Couple that with Hugh Jackman, the biggest draw of the franchise, being decidedly absent from the movie, potential spoiler Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles showing up the next weekend, and Alice in Wonderland opening the SAME weekend, I don't think I'm being cynical; I think I'm being generous.

"But Apocolypse!" I hear you screaming. Surely the biggest bad of the X-men has to be worth something, right? Meh. Apocalypse is the most powerful enemy the X-men have faced...since their last enemy. Every movie pitches the villain as a world-ending mega-threat, and I think that diminishes the significance of Apocalypse. The latest X-men movie will be lucky to repeat the success of Days of Future Past, and is my best bet for a full-on flop.

6. Dr. Strange $230 Million

I wanted to put this one higher, and if X-men and Suicide Squad have the best chance of flopping, I think Dr. Strange has the best chance of blowing up. That being said, I have to be realistic, and Warner Bros. dropping some serious competition less than 2 weeks after Dr. Strange is released; namely Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. As strong as the Marvel logo is, audiences have missed Harry Potter movies for 5 years (yeah, feel old). Considering both films are about wizards in New York, Dr. Strange could have it's legs cut out from under it.

Still, Benedict Cumberbatch is arguably the biggest star to lead a Marvel film, at the time of it's release. Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Pratt were by no means mega stars when their respective films came out. Actually, Paul Rudd is probably Cumberbatch's biggest competition, and Antman was one of the lowest grossing Marvel movies, presumably because of it's silly concept. Dr. Strange is a more traditional hero character, so my prediction is that it will do slightly better.

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows $200 Million

Finally, we have the movie we weren't sure if we should count. But after deliberation, we figured it's based on a comic book, there are super villains, and AMC's safety tips that run before the movie fit it in with X-men and Spider-man. So it counts.

Look, last place isn't a bad thing here, all of these movies would be considered resounding successes if this is indeed what they make. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (or TMNT:OS for... short?) seems to be continuing the formula of Michael Bay's Transformers; make a movie for small (male) children, piss off adult fanboys, release a Super Bowl trailer with some lesser known characters (Bebob and Rocksteady), make a movie that's even worse than the first, but make more money...somehow. Actually, it's pretty simple: fanboys will see it regardless, and so will children. But I don't expect this to make that much more than the first, so a conservative $200 million seems fair.

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